When congregations of The Lutheran Church, Missouri Synod submitted presidential nominations in February, Rev. Dr. Matthew C. Harrison held a commanding advantage with 900 nominations against Rev. Dr. Joel D. Biermann’s 334, a three-to-one margin representing 51 percent of all nominating ballots cast for the presidency. By the evening of June 10, when the Synod’s official newspaper published first-ballot results, that dominance had nearly evaporated. The incumbent finished at 43.8 percent to Biermann’s 39.0, a separation of a mere 228 votes, and Harrison failed to achieve the first-ballot majority that had secured each of his five previous terms.
Voting opened June 6 under using YesElections, the electronic process the Synod has employed for presidential elections since 2013. Of 5,478 registered pastoral and lay voters, 4,676 returned ballots, a participation rate of 85.4 percent that exceeded the 82.6 percent turnout of 2023 despite a smaller registered electorate. Consequently, the compression of Harrison’s lead cannot be attributed to voter indifference or to a depleted franchise.
The size of the shift indicates either that voters who had not nominated Biermann nonetheless selected him in the direct balloting, or that Harrison’s own turnout collapsed. Biermann’s performance far outpaced what his nomination count implied, while Harrison underperformed his nomination dominance by a margin no previous cycle of his tenure has produced.
Set against Harrison’s record since 2010, the erosion is steeper still. He won the presidency on the convention floor in Houston in 2010, 54 percent to 45 on the first ballot; secured the Synod’s inaugural online presidential election in 2013 on the first ballot; returned in 2016 with 56.96 percent, in 2019 with 51.76, and in 2023 with 52.32, which made him the first president since 1947 to reach a fifth term. Every previous contest yielded a first-ballot majority without a runoff. His absolute vote count dropped from 2,616 in 2023 to 2,050 in 2026, a loss of 566 votes, despite the higher turnout.
Not Yet a Duel
The runoff format does not automatically produce a two-candidate race. The bylaw procedure drops only the lowest finisher and conducts another ballot in identical fashion, repeating as necessary until a candidate achieves a majority. Rev. Peter K. Lange, the Synod’s first vice-president, finished at 2.4 percent and became the only name removed. The second ballot, scheduled for June 13 through 16, will therefore carry four candidates: Harrison, Biermann, and Revs. Benjamin T. Ball (7.9 percent) and Brady L. Finnern (6.9 percent).
The mathematics are straightforward. Harrison and Biermann together hold 82.8 percent of the ballots cast, leaving 17.2 percent redistributable from Ball, Finnern, and the departing Lange. Whether the supporters of these alternative candidates, who never approached Biermann’s opposition momentum, gravitate toward Harrison as the established incumbent or toward Biermann as the focal point of challenger sentiment will determine whether Harrison secures a sixth term.
The second round opens June 13 and closes June 16 under identical YesElections protocols, with successive ballots following the same pattern should no majority materialize before the June 30 deadline. The Office of the Secretary will publish fuller detail in the second issue of Today’s Businesswhen delegates assemble. The 69th Regular Convention convenes July 18 through 23 at the Phoenix Convention Center under the theme “Christ Is Risen Indeed,” and the presidency will likely be settled in congregational inboxes before the proceedings open. What the first ballot has conclusively determined is narrower but consequential: Harrison’s three-to-one advantage of February has vanished, and the first-ballot confirmation he has received five times consecutively can no longer be assumed.
First published on Ad Crucem News, June 10, 2026. First-ballot figures from the Synod’s official reporting of June 10; nomination tallies from the slate published at lcms.org/convention/national/elections.